As the first few regions of New York enter Phase 1 of the State’s re-opening plan, I wanted to share some data on where the NYC real estate market is now, and what we may see in the second half of 2020. Current Market Conditions Since the “NY on PAUSE” order began on March 22, agents have been extremely limited in their ability to list, market, and show properties. While some transactions have taken place, most have been closings of deals that had been negotiated before March 22nd. From mid-March through the end of April, very few new sales listings entered the market, and many active listings were temporarily de-listed. Agents are not permitted to show listings in-person, and even when this restriction is lifted (possibly in mid- to late-June), we may see many buildings continue to restrict the access of real estate agents. Since May 1, we have seen a handful of new listings come to market – there were 37% more new listings the week of 5/4 than the previous week -- but overall new listings are still down about 78% compared to last year. Most new asking prices appear to be at pre-COVID levels and we have not seen price reductions on existing inventory; however, this is not an accurate reflection of where we expect prices to be as (1) it is premature for price reductions when showings are limited/non-existent, and (2) agents/sellers expect most new offers to be significantly below ask and for sale prices to show greater-than-usual negotiability. There is very little hard data, but we have received the results of a few surveys that provide us with some preliminary insight on negotiability. This data is not comprehensive, as it only includes responses of brokers who opted-in to respond, but I find it useful nonetheless. These surveys suggest that prices will begin to trend ~ 5-10% lower as real estate activity resumes. It’s also clear that a fair number of buyers expect greater negotiability and discounts, which sellers still seem unwilling to accept. Halstead Survey - Based on 105 offers self-reported by agents between 3.22 - 5.8: The average difference between ALL offer prices and ALL ask prices was 13.79% (105 replies) The average difference between offer and ask in deals that were ACCEPTED was 6.78% (40 replies) The average difference between offer and ask in deals that were REJECTED was 18.10% (65 replies) In MANHATTAN: The average difference between ALL offers and ALL asks was 15.59% (76 replies) The average difference in deals where offer was ACCEPTED was 7.25% (26 replies) The average difference in deals where offer was REJECTED was 19.92% (50 replies) In BROOKLYN: The average difference between ALL offers and ALL asks was 9.09% (23 replies) The average difference in deals where offer was ACCEPTED was 4.93% (13 replies) The average difference in deals where offer was REJECTED was 15.08% (10) Thank you to Fritz Fagan, Exec. Director of Sales and Leasing for Halstead Manhattan, for sharing this information. Compass Negotiability Survey 3/16 to 4/15 - Based on 61 offers self-reported by agents (includes both accepted and rejected offers):​ In MANHATTAN (39 offers): 15 offers < 4% below-ask 12 offers 4-9.91% below-ask 6 offers 10-15% below-ask 3 offers 16-20% below ask 3 offers +21% below-ask 69% of all offers made were <10% below-ask In BROOKLYN (22 offers): 12 offers < 4% below-ask 6 offers 4-9.91% below-ask 2 offers 10-15% below-ask (both for townhouses priced $2M-$4M) 1 offer 21%+ below-ask (for a +$2M condo, not accepted) +82% of offers made were <10% below-ask. Compass Survey for Offers Made 4/15 - 5/15 - Compass later changed the survey questions and methodology, and the more recent survey tied the negotiability to results. Based on 119 offers self-reported by agents: In MANHATTAN (79 Total Offers): 52 offers (66%) were SUCCESSFUL (meaning they led to an accepted offer) 27 offers (34%) were REJECTED 38% of ACCEPTED offers were <4% below-ask 85% of ACCEPTED offers were <10% below-ask 78% of REJECTED offers were >10% below-ask, and 56% were >15% below-ask In BROOKLYN (40 Total offers): 30 Offers (75%) were SUCCESSFUL (meaning they led to an accepted offer) 10 offers (25%) were REJECTED 50% of ACCEPTED offers were <4% below-ask, another 47% were 4-9.9% below-ask Only 1 ACCEPTED offer was +10% below-ask Only 4 REJECTED offers were <10% below-ask, while 60% (6 offers) were >10% below-ask Expectations for 2020 Market Activity With the current drought of listings, the big question is when will new listings come to market and how will negotiability, buyer interest, and overall sales activity change throughout 2020. Currently, I’m expecting to see two bursts of listings: Mid-to-Late June -- Hopefully NYC’s infection data will continue to decline over the next few weeks, and we will qualify to enter Phase 1 of the State’s re-opening plan by mid-June. This will allow construction, manufacturing, and wholesale business to resume. Assuming infection rates and other metrics remain stable, we could be ready to enter Phase 2 – which includes professional services such as real estate – a few weeks later. In Phase 2 we expect there to be a significant uptick in sales activity. My expectations for this period are as follows: There are many listings in queue, and while there is some pent-up demand in the market, the rush of inventory will likely outpace this demand. Listing prices will likely be similar to pre-COVID, as there will still be very limited closed sale data that reflects transactions made during the pandemic. Most offers made/accepted will likely be lower than ask. To the extent there are buyers out there in June, they will be looking for deals. Many buyers (and sellers) will opt to "wait and see" through the summer. Activity and demand in the market will likely vary widely by price-point, with the higher end of the market (+$2M) seeing far less activity than the <$2M market, especially as many of these buyers have left the city for the summer. Early September (after Labor Day) – Given the talk of a possible resurgence of the virus in late Fall, I expect most sellers will opt to list ASAP in September to get ahead of a potential second wave. Everyday life may be somewhat back to normal at that point, and buyers are likely to feel more comfortable with their financial and job security, especially if the economy is on the mend. It will be significant for both buyer and seller confidence during this period if we have evidence of improved treatments/prognosis for COVID-19, especially if these indicate that a significant resurgence is unlikely. Even without this, if schools have opened back up, many more prospective buyers will have returned to the City. This should result in an increase in demand, although lingering economic uncertainty and quality of life issues may mean that some buyers are still hesitant to pay premium prices. We can also expect to see an adjustment in listing prices due to a new wave of closed sale comps from the Summer months that will be available come Fall. Expectations for Pricing in 2020 & Beyond Overall, I expect that inventory will exceed demand for the remainder of 2020. While many sellers will try to wait out 2020 with the hope of listing in a more settled market next Spring, there will inevitably be a backlog of properties with sellers who just can’t wait – and most of these properties will be listed at essentially the same time. Also, while mortgage rates are still very low, sellers are still likely to have a more limited pool of buyers, as lending standards have tightened. It is significantly harder for buyers with low liquidity to qualify for loans, and most major banks are unwilling to lend more than 80% LTV (20% down). It’s hard to say what effect this will have on prices market-wide. Some agents fear adjustments of 15+% across the board. Noah Rosenblatt of Urban Diggs predicts 10-15% (maybe more for higher priced properties) dip over the summer reflecting closed sales where the negotiations took place during COVID for sellers that had to sell, he expects a bounce back to half those levels over Fall, and then a gradual recovery to pre-COVID levels by next Spring. My expectation lies somewhere in between. I don’t think there will be a sustained drop in prices over 10% for most properties. I think a 5-10% drop for Manhattan resales is a reasonable expectation over the next year, but I expect we will also see significant variations based on product type (co-op, condo, townhouse), location, and price point (higher end affected more than lower end). Homes with lower monthly charges, outdoor space, and washer dryer in unit will likely fare better than others. Price volatility and time to recovery will be impacted by these considerations, and it might take longer than next Spring to see an across the board return to pre-COVID levels. Although we anticipate a normalization of buyer behavior by early 2021, supply may continue to outpace demand as 2020 listings catch up and we potentially see additional new inventory due to the effects of COVID.

While prices and sales volume declined again in the final quarter of 2019, Q4 actually saw the lowest rate of decline since the fall of 2017. An uptick in activity in the last month of the year -- and another drop in interest rates at the start of the year -- hopefully leads to further stabilization in the first half of 2020. Our analysis is below, along with links to Compass’s Q4 Market reports for even more data and details. MANHATTAN A “wait and see” approach by Manhattan buyers, coupled with anxious sellers, continued to weigh down prices this fall. As a result, 2019 price figures settled to their lowest year-end levels in five years, with average price falling 10% to $1.862M and median price—less skewed by high or low prices—slipping 3% to $999K to remain below $1M for a second quarter in a row. Manhattan’s luxury market saw sales over $5M drop 41%. It's important to keep some perspective on these figures: even at the lowest point this year, prices remained nearly 15% higher than ten years ago. While days on market continued to increase, other metrics were neutral or slightly improved relative to the prior year. Manhattan sales volume were almost even with this time last year, and prices in some product types have begun to bounce back. Inventory is lower, and mortgage rates have remained steady. We saw a 1% uptick in resale co-op sales and an 11% boost in new development sales, but overall sales figures were brought down by a 13% drop in resale condo sales. Signed contracts in the final quarter, however, were up from 2018 figures for a third consecutive quarter—improving 4% annually—suggesting that demand, after four years of declines, may finally begin to absorb supply. In a market hungry for improvement, the last quarter’s results leave us cautiously optimistic as we enter the new decade. BROOKLYN Much like the first half of 2019, sales activity in the second half of the year in Brooklyn moderated compared to a very strong 2018, though prices continued to rise. Average price across the borough hit its highest figure in any fourth quarter, and median price did the same, this year hitting a record high of $800,000. While these figures only represent a marginal increase, median price per square foot increased by double-digits in the final quarter of 2019. This reflects a shift towards smaller apartments, as many buyers chose to hold firm on price by opting for smaller homes -- indicative of a greater overall price sensitivity in the market. Properties in the $500K-1M segment made up 36% of inventory in the final quarter, but accounted for 47% of closings, and competition for these units resulted in a 2% higher average price per square foot. For properties priced in the $1-2M range, inventory outpaced closings, but price per square foot increased 6% versus 2018 because units in this price tier were also 5% smaller compared to past years. Properties priced $2M and higher made up just 6% of all recorded sales, and these units offered the largest average discount. The $3M+ segment saw a decrease in average price per square foot, as more of this inventory was made up of townhomes instead of luxury condos compared to last year. Days on market increased for properties over $1M as Brooklyn buyers also lost some of the sense of urgency that has driven the Brooklyn market to record-fast sales in previous years. By product type, co-ops had the smallest market share but moved the quickest, with 42% of listings entering contract in the first 59 days on market. Mirroring a trend across the river in Manhattan, condos (particularly new development), which commanded the highest average price per square foot figures in the borough, were the slowest to enter contract -- just 32% entered contract in the first 59 days, while 32% took 180+ days. #NYCMarketAnalysesTips #BlogPosts #IYTMarketReports

Carnegie Hill is a small section of the Upper East Side with a history of rich culture, architecture, and residents. Home to Museum mile, world-renowned museums such as the MET and the Guggenheim set the standard for the luxurious history and feel of the 12 x 4 block neighborhood. Named after the mansion that Andrew Carnegie built on 91st Street and 5th Avenue (which is now the Cooper Hewitt Museum), other wealthy residents followed suit and their lifestyle survives through the apartments available in the area -- today, Carnegie Hill is full of white-glove co-ops and grand brownstones with beautifully manicured stoops that line the park and surrounding streets. Here are some of the Team’s top picks in the neighborhood for fine dining and museum visits among other can’t-miss stops in the neighborhood. #NeighborhoodSpotlight #BlogPosts

Park Slope is an idyllic Brooklyn neighborhood with tree-lined streets, beautifully manicured stoops, and more brownstones than the eye can see. Located directly next to Prospect Park, Park Slope finds the perfect balance between city life and residential life. The neighborhood is also full of local gems for dining, drinking, and listening to live music. Check out our favorite spots in Park Slope that are well worth a visit. #BlogPosts #NeighborhoodSpotlight

Ditmas Park is like something out of a Norman Rockwell dream with the best parts of suburbia smack in the middle of bustling Brooklyn. Characterized by large Victorian homes with porches and yards and a true community feel, there has been a recent influx of hot restaurants and other amenities in this historic neighborhood. #BlogPosts #NeighborhoodSpotlight

UP, DOWN, EVEN: Market Metrics The first half of 2019 seems to support a stabilizing market in 2019, with both prices and closings up compared to this time last year. However, these promising signs for overall market health might be due in part to a dramatic increase in new development sales in the second quarter. Most of these sales entered contract well before the start of 2019, and so are not truly indicative of the current market. Contracts signed, a better indicator of actual market activity, did see a momentary spike in April, but it’s likely much of this was attributable to buyers rushing to close before the new state transfer and mansion taxes took effect on July 1st. Inventory in Manhattan increased year-over-year again this spring, a now familiar trend we’ve seen since the end of 2017. Active listings surpassed 8,000 for the first time since 2011, even though there was actually less new inventory introduced to the market in the first half of this year than last. Marketwide absorption rates have continued to lag, making for a continued buyers’ market, although a modest increase in median co-op sales prices did manage to offset yet another year-over-year decline in condo sale prices. Overall, properties with low monthlies and competitive pricing have continued to transact well, but luxury new development and condo resales continue to linger on the market. Midtown, FIDI, and both the Upper East and Upper West Side markets saw year-over-year drops in both condo and co-op resale prices, while both Downtown and Upper Manhattan saw a year-over-year increase in prices across all product types. In Brooklyn, the number of sales fell short of last year’s record-breaking spring selling season. But 2019 has still been a strong year. Over 2,700 apartments closed between January and June, one of the highest figures recorded in the past decade, and median sale price figures saw year-over-year increases across all price-tiers and almost all product types. While resale closings declined year-over-year, new development sales increased to balance these drops, accounting for a notably high 32% of the total market share. Contract activity also continued to decline, a trend we’ve observed since the start of 2018 – unlike Manhattan, where buyers felt pressure to beat the new mansion tax, Brooklyn appears unaffected by these changes which changed the rates above $2M, a very small segment of the Brooklyn market. Inventory levels in Brooklyn also rose in the first half of 2019 by double digits compared to the same time last year – while the largest spike was due to new development inventory, all product types saw an increase from the extremely constricted levels found in both 2017 and 2018. Co-op inventory, while up from Spring 2018, made up only 1/3 of all active inventory this year, representing a 9-year low in market share. Resale condo inventory increased year-over-year by double digits, although interestingly, also saw a rather unexpected increase in sale price not typical of increased inventory levels. The median sale price for 2-bedroom condo resales also broke $1M for the first time in the second quarter, and resale co-ops also saw double digit increases in median sale price for 1, 2 and 3-bedroom homes. Despite an increase in inventory and decline in contracts and closings, prices were up and days on market declined compared to the same time last year. Manhattan Marketwide Manhattan By Segment Brooklyn Marketwide Brooklyn By Segment Click here to download the full report. #BlogPosts #CurrentMarketReport #IYTMarketReports

Besides being the location of Woody Allen’s iconic Manhattan bridge scene, Sutton Place is a cozy enclave by the East River that is historically known for upscale apartments and prestigious residents. Running from 53rd Street to 59th Street between First Avenue and the East River, the neighborhood has some of the most elegant and classic pre-war co-ops in the city, complete with around-the-clock doormen, roof decks, gyms, shared gardens, and more. Former Governor Mario Cuomo, designer Kenneth Cole, and actress Sigourney Weaver currently call Sutton Place home, and former residents include Michael Jackson, I. M. Pei, Freddie Mercury, Joan Crawford, and Marilyn Monroe and Arthur Miller. Take a look at some of our favorite spots in this secluded -- and exclusive -- neighborhood of Manhattan. #BlogPosts #NeighborhoodSpotlight

In honor of Pride Month, we’re going to focus our neighborhood spotlight on the heart of NYC pride -- the Village! Not only are there some historical Pride sites in the Village, but there are also city-wide favorites for nightlife, food, and much more. Here are the Isil Yildiz Team’s top spots in the West Village, and are sure to have some amazing Pride celebrations going on this month. #BlogPosts #NeighborhoodSpotlight

BoCoCa, the larger area that encompasses the smaller Brooklyn neighborhoods of Boerum Hill, Cobble Hill, and Carroll Gardens, encompasses all that Brooklyn has to offer — a downtown feel within the charming and historic neighborhood, but with a more laid-back lifestyle compared to neighboring Manhattan — and it’s my old hood! BoCoCa is also home to some amazing restaurants, bars, and food shops, many of which became staples when my husband Bill and I lived in Cobble Hill for 6 years. Here are some of my favorite places in my old neighborhood! #BlogPosts #NeighborhoodSpotlight

UP, DOWN, EVEN: Market Metrics While the data suggests that the Manhattan market continues to lag, the reality is much of the market (namely co-ops) seems to be bouncing back from last year’s slump with positive results in the first quarter. The surplus in new development inventory continues to depress condo prices in both new development and resale, which is bringing down the overall market outlook. Marketwide, average and median prices showed a decline, but prices for resale co-ops actually remained even with Q1 2018, and saw a 3% increase in both median sale price and median PPSF compared to Q4 2018. Closings declined by more than 5% Y-O-Y due mostly to double digit drops in condo closings (co-op closings declined a minimal 2%). The relatively strong numbers for the co-op and $1-2M markets in Manhattan is consistent with what we’ve seen on the ground as activity is significantly higher, and demand is stronger compared to the second half of 2018. Similarly in Brooklyn, marketwide numbers are a bit misleading. While overall median prices have dropped, this is due to an ongoing shift of market activity to traditionally lower-priced neighborhoods. This trend pushed sale prices up in those areas yet again this quarter, but brought overall borough-wide sale prices down by 5% compared to last year. The total share of sales priced over $750,000 fell by 6% this quarter, while sales in Bedford-Stuyvesant, Crown Heights, Prospect Lefferts Gardens & Bushwick had twice the market share versus Q1 2018. Closings were also down, largely attributable to a six-year low in the condo market and a steep drop of new development closings, but the co-op market has remained stable with both closings and contracts signed essentially even year-over-year. Our prognosis is a stable market in traditionally higher-priced neighborhoods with continued scarcity of inventory, and a dramatic increase in prices and activity at the lower-end of the market as overall demand in Brooklyn remains strong. Take a look below at a breakdown of the Manhattan and Brooklyn markets in Q4 by both segment and price. Download our full report here. #BlogPosts #IYTMarketReports

What neighborhood is the birthplace of the Oreo cookie? What neighborhood is the first land the Titanic survivors set foot on? What neighborhood has the most art galleries? What neighborhood has a 1.5 mile eco-system thirty feet in the air? Filled with history and a unique culture all its own, Chelsea has a little something for everyone. From luxury new-developments to world-class art galleries, Chelsea has become one of Manhattan’s most sought-after neighborhoods for locals and tourists alike. West Chelsea in particular has been pivotal in the neighborhood’s transformation. Like most of downtown Manhattan's West Side, West Chelsea was historically heavily involved in the manufacturing and shipping industries. For a short period of time in the early 1800's the more central parts of Chelsea saw a major influx of art, music, and theater, turning the once quiet neighborhood into a happening entertainment scene. However, the laying of the Hudson River Railroad in 1847 brought freight trains, lumber yards, warehouses, manufacturers, and an immigrant labor force. In response, theaters, fine-art galleries and the wealthy moved Uptown. With the possibility of becoming New York’s art district (seemingly) in the past, Chelsea continued further into manufacturing and commercialization. For most of the twentieth century, Chelsea was a dilapidated industrial graveyard — while there were historic brownstones and some residential development projects like London Terrace and Chelsea Corners, it wasn’t until the 80’s that the art scene returned to Chelsea, and once again put it on the map as a trendy neighborhood — open lofts and warehouses with cheap rents made for perfect studio and gallery spaces. With an edgy and cool crowd returning, developers interest in the now “up and coming" neighborhood began grow. However, despite the successful art galleries in the area, West Chelsea remained an eyesore to many through the 90s and early 2000s. The neglected High Line train tracks was the topic of development debate for over a decade, and Mayor Guiliani eventually signed a demolition order in 1999. The foundation Friends of the High Line suggested the idea of a public park (founders Joshua David and Robert Hammond saw untapped potential in the wild plants that grew over the abandoned tracks) and the demolition was postponed. Mayor Bloomberg and the City Council were strong supporters of turning the High Line into a public park, and The West Chelsea Special District received certification from the Department of City Planning at the end of 2004. With the success of this new public park highly anticipated, developers began purchasing properties around the High Line — in just two years, 20 properties were purchased with 13 slated to be new condominiums. In the years since, West Chelsea has become one of the most appreciated neighborhoods in Manhattan — famous architects like Frank Gehry and Bjarke Ingel have built architecturally stunning apartment buildings that have immortalized West Chelsea as a symbol of modern New York luxury. Here are some of our favorite new developments in the area today: 520 West 28th Street is the only residential building Iraqi-British architect Zaha Hadid designed in New York, and is one of the last projects she worked on before her passing in 2016. Affectionately named the Zaha Hadid, the curved shape and geometric designs on the facade of the building are signatures of the architect. Construction of the 11-story, 39-unit condo was completed in July of 2017. Complete with all the top-amenities, 520 West 28th Street also features a sculpture deck that plans to rotate art curated by the Friends of the High Line Foundation. Soori High Line, located at 522 West 29th Street, marked the American debut of Soo K. Chan, one of Asia's most regarded architects. Modeled to feel like a high-end resort, Soori High Line features the same amenities you might find at a 5-star hotel, including a lifestyle concierge, state-of-the-art gym, a spa, and yoga and pilates studios. The 11-story condo has 31 units, and was completed in 2017. 515 West 29th Street is another design by Soo K. Chan, and is equally as luxurious as Soori High Line. The glass fin facade of "Five One Five" is a signature of the SCDA's principal architect. With just 15 units split across the 11 floors, Five One Five offers a boutique living experience with amenities that include a roof deck, a gym, private storage, and amazing views of the High Line. Construction was completed last year. Another High Line-hugging new development is 500 West 25th Street. Built on the lot of an old auto-body shop, 500W25 consists of 7 floor-through apartments and a duplexed penthouse, all with outdoor space, and is designed by architect-developer GDSNY. The condo is set to finish construction this year, and sales for the properties have already launched. The Jardim at 527 West 27th Street is the first New York City residential condominium by Brazilian architect Isay Weinfeld. The Jardim is actually comprised of two towers, one located on 27th Street and the other on 28th Street, and both towers will be connected by a lush garden and courtyard for residents. There are 36 units in the Jardim, and the 11-story brick and glass complex will likely be completed by the end of this year. #BlogPosts

West Chelsea has a vibrant energy that mixes uptown ritz and downtown glam. Neighborhood hot spots like Chelsea Market and the High Line are staples to New York City, and are frequented by locals and tourists alike. Chelsea is home to one of our current listings and our Coming Soon listing, and is one of the Isil Yildiz Team’s favorite places — we’re sharing our top 10 places to dine & drink and shop & play on the West Side of this unique neighborhood! #NeighborhoodSpotlight #BlogPosts